![]() ![]() According to recent polling, three-quarters of Republican voters-and a sizeable 26 percent of independents-believe that Trump was the legitimate winner of the last election. Unfortunately, it seems not just possible but probable that certification will become a problem in the next close presidential election-perhaps even in the next close congressional elections. ![]() Americans could only hope that courts across the country would intervene swiftly, consistently, and on the side of democracy. But with more than 3,000 counties in the United States, 12 if even 1 percent of county election officials decide that it is a legitimate tactic to refuse to certify election results-based on unproven allegations of fraud, or for any other reason-that could bring the whole electoral system to a standstill. ![]() This process is usually mechanical and straightforward. Across the country, it is typical for counties to review and certify election results before passing them on to a state entity for final certification. If this kind of obstruction catches on, it opens up a vast vulnerability in U.S. 10 But the day after casting these votes, both board members who initially opposed certification asked to “rescind” their votes in favor-a request that, fortunately, had no basis in state law. Two of the four board members initially voted against certifying the results, leading to “an extremely rare 2-2 tie.” 9 Within hours, after a heated public outcry, the board unanimously voted to certify the results. The Wayne County Board of Canvassers, which is responsible for certifying the votes for Michigan’s most populous county-home to Detroit-nearly failed to certify the votes for the county. While the State Board of Elections in Michigan came within one vote of not certifying the presidential election, what happened at the county level in Michigan was equally alarming. 1: Partisan officials might refuse to certify the election Legislation alone is not going to restore faith in democracy, but it can strengthen the guardrails that-at least in the short run-keep democracy intact. This issue brief explores each of these threats below, 8 along with the ways that public policy can address them. And, even when the election is over and done, members of Congress might refuse to respect the Electoral College results. Bad actors might try to tamper with the results of the election-or prevent their opposition from voting-under the pretense of preventing fraud. Election officials might refuse to certify the next election. In the meantime, however, policymakers ignore the short-term problem at their peril. Changing those hearts and minds is a long-term challenge that is going to require thoughtful, long-term solutions. A large segment of the American public has decided they do not trust the electoral system-at least not when their favored candidate loses. But it is important to clarify at the outset: There is no silver bullet. ![]() This issue brief aims to clarify how future elections are threatened and how public policy can address those threats. The top threats to American elections and how to address them 7 In that environment, even a relatively limited, poorly executed attempt to manipulate the election could succeed in changing the outcome. In the 2020 election, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden’s margin of victory was less than 1 percent in three states: Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. But the recent trend has been the opposite: Americans are relatively evenly divided between the two major political parties, which means that electoral manipulation can succeed even if it only shifts a tiny percentage of the votes. This may not be a problem if one candidate wins the next election in a landslide or even by a decisive margin. In other words, the people who stopped an overthrow of the last presidential election may not be there to defend U.S. The people who stopped an overthrow of the last presidential election may not be there to defend U.S. ![]()
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